Baqar HussainWhere owing to significant drop in international crude oil prices, the cumulative profit after taxation (PAT) of the company is expected to decline 27% YoY in FY15 to Rs 3,154 million (EPS: Rs 38.03) versus a PAT of Rs 4,327 million (EPS: Rs 52.16) in FY14. The profitability of the company would also affect by lower other income. Though the volumetric sales of the company increased but due to drastic decline in crude oil prices, company had to face sever inventory losses of more than Rs1.3 billion.
Earning to turnaround on QoQ basis: On back of recovery in crude oil prices, we expect company to generate inventory gains, the bottom-line of the company is anticipated to post a significant 148% QoQ growth where it’s PAT is expected to total Rs 1,202 million (EPS: Rs 14.49) in 4QCY15 versus a PAT of Rs 484 million (EPS: Rs 5.84) in 3QFY15. The corporate results are likely to be accompanied with a final cash dividend of Rs 17.50/share in addition to the already paid cash dividend of Rs12.5/share during 9MFY15.
Topline to decline by 17%: Owing to heavy drop in prices of the petroleum products, the net revenue of the company is expected to fell by 17% YoY in FY15 to Rs 170,566 million versus Rs 205,163 million in FY14. The cost of sales too would remain low declining by 17% YoY in FY15. Therefore, gross profit would decrease by 23% YoY in FY15 to Rs 4,571 million versus Rs5,942 million in FY14.
Sales volume climbs 6% YoY: The overall sales volume of the company totaled 2.11 million tons in FY15 resulting in a 6% YoY growth when compared to 2 million tons of volumetric sales in FY14. Furnace oil sales rose by 13% YoY during the year to 1,012k tons while Mogas sales grew by 23% YoY in FY15 to 319k tons. The sales volume of High Speed Diesel (HSD) however declined by 5% YoY in FY15 to 749k tons.
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Syed Zaki Hussain
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