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IMF projects decline in gross debt - Inside Financial Markets

IMF projects decline in gross debt

– Business Recorder

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a decline in the government gross debt for Pakistan, ie, from 83.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021 to 80.9 percent in 2022. According to the IMF report, “Fiscal Monitor, Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances”, the net debt for Pakistan is also projected to decline from 74.8 percent of the GDP in 2021 to 74.1 percent in 2022.

The government revenue is projected at 15.4 percent of GDP for 2022 and 16.6 percent for 2023 against 14.5 percent during the same period of 2021.

The fund has projected government primary balance at -0.4 percent for 2022 against -1.3 percent in 2021.

Further the government’s overall balance is projected at -6.2 percent for 2022 against -7.1 percent in 2021.

The report has projected government expenditure at 21.6 percent of the GDP in 2022 and 20.8 percent in 2023 compared to 21.6 percent in 2021.

According to the report, the country’s debt to average maturity in 2021 is estimated at 32.6 percent of GDP.

There would be total financing need of about 35.9 percent of GDP in 2021.

The projected interest rate – growth differential 2021-26 is -4.5 percent.

The report projected pre-pandemic overall balance 2012-19 at -6.6 percent.

Projected overall balance 2020-26 is projected at -5.2 percent.

Non-resident holding of general government debt 2020 (percent of total) is projected at 34 percent.

Syed Zaki Hussain

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Inside Financial Markets was a joint publication of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)and Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan (STAP)