Urea sales dropped 11% MoM to 458k tons

Urea sales dropped 11% MoM to 458k tons

According to fertilizer offtake figures of Sep-13, urea sales dropped 11% MoM to 458k tons in the month, while this figure is up 73% on a YoY basis. On 9MCY13 basis, the sales recorded 11% YoY increase to 4,146k tons. On the other hand DAP’s sales increased by enormous 1.1x MoM in Sep-13, on YoY basis sales were down 15% YoY, to 177k tons during the month. However on 9MCY13 basis, DAP sales are still up 22% YoY. FFBL remains the major outperformer during the month in the DAP offtake as the company’s sales surged 98% MoM to 99k tons

 

Fertilizer offtake (Ktons)	Sep-13	Sep-12	YoY	Aug-13	MoM	9MCY13	9MCY12	YoY
Urea	458	264	73%	515	-11%	4,146	3,723	11%
DAP	177	208	-15%	84	110%	765	632	21%
CAN	42	17	147%	34	22%	332	321	3%
NP	23	31	-28%	32	-30%	265	272	-3%
Company offtake (Ktons)	Sep-13	Sep-12	YoY	Aug-13	MoM	9MCY13	9MCY12	YoY
Urea
FFC and FFBL	222	162	37%	232	-4%	1,995	1,810	10%
ENGRO	164	50	226%	162	1%	1,066	593	80%
FATIMA	41	9	352%	37	10%	257	207	24%
NFML	15	33	-55%	46	-68%	643	948	-32%
DAP
FFBL	99	188	-48%	50	98%	445	365	22%
ENGRO	36	8	357%	27	35%	172	138	24%
Source: AHL Research

 

 

Fertilizer Inventory (ktons)       As of	30-Sep-2013
Urea	49
DAP	256
CAN	3
Company Inventory (ktons)      As of	30-Sep-2013
Urea
FFC and FFBL	8
ENGRO	8
FATIMA	2
NFML	8
DAP
FFBL	181
ENGRO	29
Source: AHL Research

 

Earnings Estimates

 

Scrips	3QCY13E	2QCY13A	QoQ	3QCY12A	YoY	9MCY13E	9MCY12A	YoY	T.P	Upside
FFC	4.04	3.60	12%	2.72	49%	11.50	10.84	6%	129	25%
FFBL	2.28	1.42	61%	1.59	43%	4.23	2.28	86%	50	32%
ENGRO	1.11	0.64	73%	(1.16)	n.m	2.36	(2.78)	n.m	211	47%

 Source: AHL Research